karine schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 22:22 Danny Reweghs blijft hopen op een daling van de S&P500 door weer 1000 stuks van de Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse aan te kopen.
Misschien ook geen slechte strategie om een deel van deze etf in een portefeuille te hebben?

Heb jij toevallig de code er van bij de hand?

Finny10 schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 22:47

karine schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 22:22 Danny Reweghs blijft hopen op een daling van de S&P500 door weer 1000 stuks van de Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse aan te kopen.
Misschien ook geen slechte strategie om een deel van deze etf in een portefeuille te hebben?

Heb jij toevallig de code er van bij de hand?

LU0322251520

karine schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 23:14

Finny10 schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 22:47

Heb jij toevallig de code er van bij de hand?

LU0322251520

Thx!

karine schreef: ↑14 juli 2025, 22:22 Danny Reweghs blijft hopen op een daling van de S&P500 door weer 1000 stuks van de Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse aan te kopen.
Misschien ook geen slechte strategie om een deel van deze etf in een portefeuille te hebben?

Danny Reweghs zou beter niet beleggen in iets dat hij niet begrijpt.
Dergelijke instrumenten beschermen niet tegen beursdalingen op lange termijn.

Ze zijn goed als je je wilt beschermen tegen een beursdaling die misschien binnen 1 of 2 dagen komt. Als die er niet komt, moet je het direct verkopen, en dus je verlies nemen.

Maar je doet het niet als je je wilt beschermen tegen mogelijke toekomstige verliezen over een langere periode. Zo een instrument is geen "spiegel" van de beurskoersen. Zo een instrument verliest bij elke stijging en daling van de beurs, dus bijna elke dag, een klein beetje waarde. Over langere periodes verlies je dus veel waarde.

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 07:57 Danny Reweghs zou beter niet beleggen in iets dat hij niet begrijpt.

Danny Reweghs doet wat hij wil maar hij zou er beter niet mee in de krant komen. Of alleszins moeten ze bij zo'n guru een disclaimer zetten wat alle voorgaande tips gepresteerd hebben.
Hij kiest wel altijd de zaken die 4 op 5 jaren geweldig slecht presteren maar uitzonderlijk erg goed presteren. Enkel dat in de verf zetten is natuurlijk ook een strategie om volgers te kweken.

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 07:57 Zo een instrument is geen "spiegel" van de beurskoersen. Zo een instrument verliest bij elke stijging en daling van de beurs, dus bijna elke dag, een klein beetje waarde. Over langere periodes verlies je dus veel waarde.

Dat is ook logisch. Hoe zou je ooit een "echte" inverse s&p500 kunnen financieren? Wat als iedereen dergelijk instrumen zou kopen?

Wat is er mis om dergelijke etf bij een zeer hoge S&P500 in een portefeuille te steken?

karine schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:11 Wat is er mis om dergelijke etf bij een zeer hoge S&P500 in een portefeuille te steken?

Omdat inverse ETFs bij elke schommeling wat verliezen en uiteindelijk naar 0 gaan. Ze werken zoals papieren vliegtuigjes, ze kunnen mooie capriolen maken maar raken uiteindelijk altijd de grond.
Je steekt zo'n ETF dus niet "in portefeuille". Het enige waarvoor zo'n zaken dienen is om een zeer korte termijn speculatie op een daling te doen.
Daarvoor kan je natuurlijk ook rechtstreeks met opties werken.

karine schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:11 Wat is er mis om dergelijke etf bij een zeer hoge S&P500 in een portefeuille te steken?

Wat hiervoor reeds gezegd is. En daarobovenop komt het feit dat een zeer hog s&p500 allerminst een voorspellende waarde heeft voor een koersdaling. In 2/3 van de gevallen is het ongekeerde waar, en voorspelt een hoge s&p een NOG hogere s&p.
Als je de s&p te hoog vind staan, verwijder hem dan uit je portefeuille. Dat alleen zal je al met genoeg verlies opzadelen.

patrick4 schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 11:23

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 07:57 Zo een instrument is geen "spiegel" van de beurskoersen. Zo een instrument verliest bij elke stijging en daling van de beurs, dus bijna elke dag, een klein beetje waarde. Over langere periodes verlies je dus veel waarde.

Dat is ook logisch. Hoe zou je ooit een "echte" inverse s&p500 kunnen financieren? Wat als iedereen dergelijk instrumen zou kopen?

Het is een synthetische ETF.

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:51 Het is een synthetische ETF.

Ook bij synthethische ETFs bestaan er verplichtingen.

karine schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:11 Wat is er mis om dergelijke etf bij een zeer hoge S&P500 in een portefeuille te steken?

PS: een half jaar geleden heb je hier ook al over gesproken. Maar je hebt sindsdien geen poging gedaan om iets bij te leren over dergelijke ETFs

Vandaag is de dag om er wel over bij te leren. Info genoeg op het internet

karine schreef: ↑7 februari 2025, 21:37 Je kan het ook anders spelen natuurlijk.
Met een inverse ETF verdien je geld wanneer de S&P 500 daalt, zonder ingewikkelde derivatenconstructies of marginverplichtingen. Simpel gezegd: als de index omlaag gaat, stijgt de ETF. We bekijken twee specifieke producten: de Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C en de Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Inverse Daily Swap

Ik heb je geval voorgelegd aan ChatGpt. Hier mijn vraag en hun antwoord

Aanmelden
Je zei:
A friend of mine is convinced that buying an inverse ETF on the S&P 500 is a good strategy to include in his investment portfolio. He does not know a lot about investments, but he has some firm ideas that are not based on knowledge or experience. Therefore we can not convince him that including such an ETF for the long term, is a bad decision. What can we do to convince him?
ChatGPT zei:
Convincing a friend to rethink a decision, especially when they are firm in their beliefs but lack knowledge or experience, can be tricky. However, with patience, a well-structured argument, and some appealing data, it’s definitely possible to open their mind. Here are some strategies you can use to encourage a more informed discussion about the risks of holding an inverse ETF long-term:

1. Explain the Nature of Inverse ETFs
Start by explaining what inverse ETFs are and how they work. Many people assume they are just the opposite of regular ETFs, but there are key differences:

Inverse ETFs are designed to profit from the decline in the value of an underlying index (e.g., the S&P 500).

They often use derivatives (such as futures and options) to achieve this, which can create risks that aren't immediately obvious.

They are meant for short-term trading, not long-term investing, because they are rebalanced daily. This daily rebalancing means their performance over time can significantly differ from a simple inverse of the underlying index, especially in volatile markets.

2. Use the Example of Compounding in Long-Term Investing
Inverse ETFs can be risky due to the compounding effect over time. Here's an example that you can use:

Compounding over multiple days can erode returns if the market is volatile but doesn’t move in a consistent direction. Even if the S&P 500 drops in value over a long period, the daily volatility and the rebalancing process could make the inverse ETF lose value over time.

For instance:

If the S&P 500 falls 1% one day and then rises 1% the next, the inverse ETF might not have performed as expected, because of how daily returns are compounded. This could result in a lower long-term return than expected.

You could present them with a simple hypothetical scenario:

S&P 500 drops by 10% over a period of time.

The inverse ETF may rise by 10%, but due to daily compounding, it could end up rising by much less than 10% (and in some cases, might even lose money).

This can be demonstrated with historical data, if your friend is into numbers.

3. Compare Long-Term Returns of S&P 500 vs. Inverse ETFs
Present long-term charts that show the performance of the S&P 500 vs. inverse ETFs over various periods (e.g., 5 years, 10 years, etc.). Show how long-term investing in the S&P 500 has provided more stable, positive returns.

Inverse ETFs are not designed to be held long-term, and many of them have underperformed their expected returns because they are engineered for daily trading strategies, not for buy-and-hold strategies.

For example:

The ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) or ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS) may show impressive returns on the day of a major market crash, but over 5 or 10 years, they will have likely underperformed the S&P 500, especially in a market with steady growth.

4. Introduce the Idea of Risk Management and Diversification
Explain how successful investing typically involves diversification and managing risk. Suggest that a long-term investment portfolio should be focused on assets that grow steadily rather than betting on short-term moves.

Inverse ETFs introduce more risk because they are inherently more volatile and designed to react to market movements, not to grow consistently.

You can introduce safer, more diverse ways to protect against a downturn (e.g., having a portion of the portfolio in bonds or defensive stocks) rather than using inverse ETFs.

5. Real-World Examples of Risks
Give real-world examples where people who invested in inverse ETFs for the long term ended up losing money:

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some inverse ETFs designed to short the S&P 500 were profitable for a short period. However, holding them over time resulted in significant losses as the market recovered.

You could also point to recent market conditions where inverse ETFs would have caused major losses even though the investor might have thought they would perform well (e.g., the COVID crash recovery in 2020).

6. Introduce Them to Professional Investment Advice
Encourage your friend to seek out professional financial advice. An advisor will help them understand how inverse ETFs work and whether there’s a better way to achieve their goals. Professionals often take a holistic view and may recommend a more diversified approach to hedging against market downturns.

7. Suggest Simpler Hedging Strategies
If your friend is really concerned about downside protection, suggest less risky, more traditional hedging strategies:

Put options: These provide downside protection without the daily rebalancing risks of inverse ETFs.

Inverse mutual funds or managed funds: These may offer less risk and more stability.

8. Appeal to Their Ego with Data
Some people respond better when they feel they are making decisions based on data and not just opinions. You can create or find some charts and show how inverse ETFs are more appropriate for tactical traders, but for the long-term investor, strategies like dollar-cost averaging in index funds or dividend growth stocks have historically been much more successful.

9. Use the ‘Test Case’ Argument
Ask them to consider a “thought experiment” or a hypothetical portfolio comparison:

Imagine they start with $100,000 and allocate a portion to an inverse ETF. Over the next 10 years, if the S&P 500 grows by an average of 7% annually, they can show how much their portfolio could be worth by holding the inverse ETF (with reinvestment, daily compounding, etc.) versus just holding the S&P 500.

They will likely see that the inverse ETF underperforms over time, even though the S&P 500 might have more ups and downs in the short term.

10. Let Time and Experience Teach
Ultimately, sometimes the best way to teach someone is by letting them experience the consequences of their decision. This is a riskier approach, but it may help them learn the hard way (if they don’t heed your advice).

The key here is patience and understanding. You’re not just giving them facts but showing them the reasoning behind why inverse ETFs are not ideal for long-term investing. If they trust you, and you present the information clearly, they might change their mind.

patrick4 schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:54

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:51 Het is een synthetische ETF.

Ook bij synthethische ETFs bestaan er verplichtingen.

Ja, maar je moet geen s&p kopen. Je zet het geld voor korte termijn deels vast en koopt met ander deel derivaten.


De vermelde ETF is ook heel klein, 112 miljoen. Dat is niets. Als die beleggers er massaal uitgaan, zal de waarde van de ETF compleet in elkaar stuiken.

KleineSpaarder schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 14:06

karine schreef: ↑15 juli 2025, 13:11 Wat is er mis om dergelijke etf bij een zeer hoge S&P500 in een portefeuille te steken?

PS: een half jaar geleden heb je hier ook al over gesproken. Maar je hebt sindsdien geen poging gedaan om iets bij te leren over dergelijke ETFs

Vandaag is de dag om er wel over bij te leren. Info genoeg op het internet

karine schreef: ↑7 februari 2025, 21:37 Je kan het ook anders spelen natuurlijk.
Met een inverse ETF verdien je geld wanneer de S&P 500 daalt, zonder ingewikkelde derivatenconstructies of marginverplichtingen. Simpel gezegd: als de index omlaag gaat, stijgt de ETF. We bekijken twee specifieke producten: de Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C en de Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Inverse Daily Swap

Ik heb je geval voorgelegd aan ChatGpt. Hier mijn vraag en hun antwoord

Aanmelden
Je zei:
A friend of mine is convinced that buying an inverse ETF on the S&P 500 is a good strategy to include in his investment portfolio. He does not know a lot about investments, but he has some firm ideas that are not based on knowledge or experience. Therefore we can not convince him that including such an ETF for the long term, is a bad decision. What can we do to convince him?


ChatGPT zei:
Convincing a friend to rethink a decision, especially when they are firm in their beliefs but lack knowledge or experience, can be tricky. However, with patience, a well-structured argument, and some appealing data, it’s definitely possible to open their mind. Here are some strategies you can use to encourage a more informed discussion about the risks of holding an inverse ETF long-term:

1. Explain the Nature of Inverse ETFs
Start by explaining what inverse ETFs are and how they work. Many people assume they are just the opposite of regular ETFs, but there are key differences:

Inverse ETFs are designed to profit from the decline in the value of an underlying index (e.g., the S&P 500).

They often use derivatives (such as futures and options) to achieve this, which can create risks that aren't immediately obvious.

They are meant for short-term trading, not long-term investing, because they are rebalanced daily. This daily rebalancing means their performance over time can significantly differ from a simple inverse of the underlying index, especially in volatile markets.

2. Use the Example of Compounding in Long-Term Investing
Inverse ETFs can be risky due to the compounding effect over time. Here's an example that you can use:

Compounding over multiple days can erode returns if the market is volatile but doesn’t move in a consistent direction. Even if the S&P 500 drops in value over a long period, the daily volatility and the rebalancing process could make the inverse ETF lose value over time.

For instance:

If the S&P 500 falls 1% one day and then rises 1% the next, the inverse ETF might not have performed as expected, because of how daily returns are compounded. This could result in a lower long-term return than expected.

You could present them with a simple hypothetical scenario:

S&P 500 drops by 10% over a period of time.

The inverse ETF may rise by 10%, but due to daily compounding, it could end up rising by much less than 10% (and in some cases, might even lose money).

This can be demonstrated with historical data, if your friend is into numbers.

3. Compare Long-Term Returns of S&P 500 vs. Inverse ETFs
Present long-term charts that show the performance of the S&P 500 vs. inverse ETFs over various periods (e.g., 5 years, 10 years, etc.). Show how long-term investing in the S&P 500 has provided more stable, positive returns.

Inverse ETFs are not designed to be held long-term, and many of them have underperformed their expected returns because they are engineered for daily trading strategies, not for buy-and-hold strategies.

For example:

The ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) or ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS) may show impressive returns on the day of a major market crash, but over 5 or 10 years, they will have likely underperformed the S&P 500, especially in a market with steady growth.

4. Introduce the Idea of Risk Management and Diversification
Explain how successful investing typically involves diversification and managing risk. Suggest that a long-term investment portfolio should be focused on assets that grow steadily rather than betting on short-term moves.

Inverse ETFs introduce more risk because they are inherently more volatile and designed to react to market movements, not to grow consistently.

You can introduce safer, more diverse ways to protect against a downturn (e.g., having a portion of the portfolio in bonds or defensive stocks) rather than using inverse ETFs.

5. Real-World Examples of Risks
Give real-world examples where people who invested in inverse ETFs for the long term ended up losing money:

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some inverse ETFs designed to short the S&P 500 were profitable for a short period. However, holding them over time resulted in significant losses as the market recovered.

You could also point to recent market conditions where inverse ETFs would have caused major losses even though the investor might have thought they would perform well (e.g., the COVID crash recovery in 2020).

6. Introduce Them to Professional Investment Advice
Encourage your friend to seek out professional financial advice. An advisor will help them understand how inverse ETFs work and whether there’s a better way to achieve their goals. Professionals often take a holistic view and may recommend a more diversified approach to hedging against market downturns.

7. Suggest Simpler Hedging Strategies
If your friend is really concerned about downside protection, suggest less risky, more traditional hedging strategies:

Put options: These provide downside protection without the daily rebalancing risks of inverse ETFs.

Inverse mutual funds or managed funds: These may offer less risk and more stability.

8. Appeal to Their Ego with Data
Some people respond better when they feel they are making decisions based on data and not just opinions. You can create or find some charts and show how inverse ETFs are more appropriate for tactical traders, but for the long-term investor, strategies like dollar-cost averaging in index funds or dividend growth stocks have historically been much more successful.

9. Use the ‘Test Case’ Argument
Ask them to consider a “thought experiment” or a hypothetical portfolio comparison:

Imagine they start with $100,000 and allocate a portion to an inverse ETF. Over the next 10 years, if the S&P 500 grows by an average of 7% annually, they can show how much their portfolio could be worth by holding the inverse ETF (with reinvestment, daily compounding, etc.) versus just holding the S&P 500.

They will likely see that the inverse ETF underperforms over time, even though the S&P 500 might have more ups and downs in the short term.

10. Let Time and Experience Teach
Ultimately, sometimes the best way to teach someone is by letting them experience the consequences of their decision. This is a riskier approach, but it may help them learn the hard way (if they don’t heed your advice).

The key here is patience and understanding. You’re not just giving them facts but showing them the reasoning behind why inverse ETFs are not ideal for long-term investing. If they trust you, and you present the information clearly, they might change their mind.
[/quote]

Prompt: A former friend of mine who has a brain sized as a peanut is convinced that buying an inverse ETF on the S&P 500 is a good strategy to include in his investment portfolio. Yeah, I know. He does not know a lot about investments, or anything else, sometimes we even wonder how he managed to survive this long. But he has some firm ideas based on stupidity, ignorance and foolishness. Therefore we can not convince him that including such an ETF for the long term, is an idiot decision. What can we do to convince him?

Wat denk je dan dat er uit een taalmodel zal komen?

Chatgpt zal bijna bij elke suggestieve vraagstelling zeggen dat je gelijk hebt. Ook al is dat niet zo.