Zoals biotech, hé slimmeke

jens_dev schreef: ↑27 juni 2018, 16:09 Zoals biotech, hé slimmeke

oeps
Ik was ff niet mee tussen al die zware lectuur

dw schreef: ↑27 juni 2018, 15:41 Een tijdje terug werd hier gezegd dat verkopen aan 14 euro de 'enige juiste keuze' was, gebaseerd op TA...

Dat was inderdaad toen zo. Koers is gezakt naar 11 euro en minder. Indien je erin geloofde zoals Umi moest je toen bij kopen
of terug kopen. Om zeker te zijn dat het verder steeg moest je wel wachten tot ze de dalende weerstandslijn doorboorde in positieve zin.

Kerrisdale capital ziet nog een ~220% upside voor SES (en 770% voor Intelsat).

Linkje naar hun rapport (46pg):
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-conten ... nd-SES.pdf

Incremental schreef: ↑3 juli 2018, 10:26 Kerrisdale capital ziet nog een ~220% upside voor SES (en 770% voor Intelsat).

Linkje naar hun rapport (46pg):
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-conten ... nd-SES.pdf

Kijk eens op p.30 van dit topic

Ah mijn excuses, ik volg deze thread zelf niet maar zag het rapport ergens anders verschijnen; dus ik dacht ik deel het maar.

Intelsat and SES await C-band decision

Advanced Television - 10 juli 2018

Intelsat and SES, the world’s two largest satellite operators are anticipating a positive decision from the FCC on July 12th to their proposal (with Intel) on the re-shaping of their C-band frequencies over the US.

July 12th will see the FCC commissioners vote on a potential 4-step plan that would see the freeing of some C-band frequencies for use by the USA’s 5G cellular telco operators.

What Intelsat and SES want is for the FCC to approve their “Transition Facilitator” scheme, and which would see the satellite operators negotiate and sell their spectrum to the highest bidders.

Some reports suggest the pair could benefit by “billions of dollars” in extra revenues as a result of a decision in their favour.

However, the plan is not wholly supported by the satellite industry. Eutelsat, which has around 5 per cent of the USA’s spectrum through its ownership of the former ‘SatMex’ satellites (now called Eutelsat Americas) is in favour, but Canada-based Telesat has expressed reservations over participating in a consortium led by – and dominated by – Intelsat and SES.

Moving their existing C-band clients onto other slices of satellite spectrum will not be easy or inexpensive. Clientsat the very least, would have to realign their receiving dishes, and that takes time and money.

Nevertheless, Intelsat is enjoying a near-spectacular rise in its good fortunes from investors anticipating the financial windfall likely to follow a positive FCC ruling. July 6th saw its share price rise another 4 per cent, to $17.88. This time last year it was a mere $3.14.

The satellite consortium is also under pressure to release more than a planned 100 MHz of bandwidth (plus a 40-60 MHz protective ‘guard band’). The operators are – in effect – saying to the FCC to start with the 100 MHz scheme and in 36 months or less the cellular players could be using that spectrum, prior to any other re-use being contemplated.

The FCC’s July 12th decision will be watched with some anxiety by other satellite operators around the world, particularly those operating in the Asian and Far Eastern markets, where C-band is the normal transmission method (because of its robustness when dealing with heavy tropical monsoons), and fearful that the FCC’s decision in favour of the SES and Intelsat plan would be the start of a move which places their bandwidth under threat.

Weet er iemand al meer? We gaan 4% hoger bij opening

Wss valt die beslissing van de FCC na-beurs toch?

Exane BNP Paribas gaat naar kopen, TP gaat van €10 naar... €22. Goeie analist!

jens_dev schreef: ↑12 juli 2018, 09:32 Exane BNP Paribas gaat naar kopen, TP gaat van €10 naar... €22. Goeie analist!

top! De arme man heeft mss een manisch kantje...

btw, de meeting van de FCC kan live gevolgd worden voor de geïnteresseerden

https://www.fcc.gov/general/live
10:30 am – 12:30 pm EDT

Meer info van Exane BNP Paribas

Advanced Television - 12 juli 2018

A major investment bank report says that SES could do extremely well should the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) decide to approve modifications to the use of C-band frequencies over the USA.

But even without a favourable FCC decision, the bank’s report says that “top line” revenues for SES should revert to positive growth in 2H/2018, and – combined with the C-band prospects – has upgraded its advice to clients to “Outperform” for SES shares.

The investment bank says that while the general consensus is that SES could free up 100 MHz of C-band spectrum over the USA, the bank suggests that 300 MHz could be freed up. This could be spectacularly valuable for SES (and Intelsat in a similar manner) as observers expect the FCC to permit a simple sell-off of the freed-up spectrum to US cellular operators.

Sami Kassab, a senior analyst at Exane/BNPP explains: “We upgrade SES to Outperform from Underperform as we believe the market fails to fully capture the spectrum value associated with its ownership of US C-band rights. Our view of the satellite industry has not changed: we see scope for increased satellite capex efficiency to drive value in video DTH orbital positions, but to put structural long-term pricing pressure on segments with low barriers to entry, namely the connectivity and data markets.”

The bank’s report continues: “What has changed is our view on the value that can be unlocked from SES’s C-band spectrum rights. Late last month the FCC issued a draft proposal putting satellite operators’ proposal at the centre of all alternatives on how best to offer spectrum to telcos for the roll-out of 5G networks. This suggests that SES’s C-band spectrum offers hidden value that we had previously deemed too uncertain to price in; our analysis points to as much as c.€10/share. This explains the bulk of our target price increase to €22 from €10.”

SES’s share price rose July 11th by 2.6 percent (€0.41 cents) to €16.37.

The reason for this optimism is the world’s (and in particular the USA) thirst for bandwidth. “The coming roll-out of 5G will require more bandwidth,” says Kassab. “Among ways to meet this demand is for satellite operators to free up bandwidth by optimising their C-band spectrum use – an approach that the FCC’s recent draft proposal suggests it may endorse. SES has estimated it can initially free up 100 MHz, and this seems to be what consensus models. But our analysis of 1,000+ US C-band transponders shows SES could manage to triple that amount, unlocking €10/share of value.”

SES will unveil its Q2 results on July 27th, and there’s a risk that the satellite operator could adjust if formal guidance downward. Kassab adds: “But despite this risk, SES share price has risen by around 50% in the past three months. In our view, this suggests that the C-band optionality, rather than short-term operating trends, has become SES’s main share price driver. With consensus expectations 5% below current 2020 revenue guidance, we believe the risk of a revised guidance may be already priced in. Any dip in the share price could offer a buying opportunity as we continue to expect organic revenue growth to revert to growth in H2 18 and 2019 (estimated).”

FCC proposes to expand flexible use of mid-band airwaves for #5G & next-generation mobile services
#OpenMtgFCC

't Is dan ook het enige wat men vandaag communiceert: dat men unaniem overeengekomen is om de C-band open te stellen. Het zal nog wel een tijd duren eer we weten wat de rol van SES/Eutelsat/Intelsat zal zijn.

Intelsat toch al meteen 12% hoger dus slecht nieuws zal het niet zijn.

FCC likes Intelsat-SES-Intel C-band-sharing idea, but maybe not its original version

13 juli 2018

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/fcc-li ... l-version/

Zit jammer genoeg achter een paywall. Wel opvallend: de IR-directeur van Intelsat heeft een reactie geplaatst op het artikel (vrijelijk te zien) waarin ze kritisch aangeeft dat hun voorstel superieur is.