Umi schreef:als we naar de vooruitzichten kijken...
forecast adjusted EBITDA = $450 - $480
Als we de FCF aan 67% tellen komen we uit tussen $301,5 & $321,6.

De lange-termijn guidance voor de fcf conversie ratio is wel slechts 55%. De voorbije 5 jaar is men er telkens boven geweest met 3 jaren met ong. 60%, eentje met 73% en vorig jaar met 67%.

-4%
Het zit me dit jaar niet mee met de aandelen.

Het verlies is alweer bijna weggewerkt.

Ja, van -7,4% naar break-even. Ofwel is DXP aandelen aan het inkopen op de open markt ofwel was de conference call geruststellend.

Dxp? Je bedoelt waarschijnlijk Clgx.

Yep

Transcriptie van de conference call staat online:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4049153 ... art=single

In 2017, we plan to repurchase at least 3 million additional shares or about 4% of our outstanding share count. Although, our market cap has increased significantly over the past several years, we believe that our current share price does not reflect the full intrinsic value of our business today and its future potential. Therefore, in our view, the ongoing repurchase of substantial numbers of our shares remains a significant source of long-term value creation.

I think cash flow percentage conversion I expect to be in line with the 55% or better range for 2017.

De vrije kasstroom zal dit jaar negatief beïnvloed worden door een significante betaling ivm pensioenverplichtingen bij een van de overgenomen bedrijven. [maar het lijkt erop dat dit eenmalig is]

Update van mijn vks-tabel want de 10-K is bekend. Faire waarde volgens mij $72: 21 x $280 mio vks gedeeld door 81,5 mio aandelen.

gpv1 schreef:

Umi schreef:als we naar de vooruitzichten kijken...
forecast adjusted EBITDA = $450 - $480
Als we de FCF aan 67% tellen komen we uit tussen $301,5 & $321,6.

De lange-termijn guidance voor de fcf conversie ratio is wel slechts 55%. De voorbije 5 jaar is men er telkens boven geweest met 3 jaren met ong. 60%, eentje met 73% en vorig jaar met 67%.

Merci, dat wou ik nog verder uitpluizen, bespaart me wat tijd
Heb wel de indruk dat ze die 'conversion rate' zeer conservatief inschatten...
Earnings call transcript spreken ze van een 30% EBITDA marge te behalen tegen 2019 (ze verwachten nog veel kostenbesparingen te kunnen doorvoeren, ook na hun $30M dit jaar & 'interest cost' zouden verder omlaag gaan).
Analistenconsensus qua sales voor 2019 is $1950M (volgens 4traders)
Dat zou dan een Ebitda van $585M opleveren, wat bij een (conservatieve) 55% conversion rate een FCF van (minstens?) $321M zou opleveren.
Als alles loopt zoals het MGMT verwacht (en waarom twijfelen gezien het trackrecord?) is dit toch een goudklompje!


ps Iemand een idee aan welke convenanten ze moeten voldoen? Net Debt/Ebitda?
Enige minpunt is dat deze nogal hoog is (in principe geen probleem tov hun FCF)

ivm de 55% conversion rate (uit de Q&A)

And then just slightly shifting gears I know you talked about the 55% EBITDA to free cash flow conversion target before this, but it looks like for 2016 you did about 70% the year before it was probably in the 60%-s around 60% is this really kind of the new normal 60% to 70%, and kind of 55% the bare minimum. I guess the question is you know with EBITDA expected to be down next year, the question is how much do you expect in free cash flow

We've done a lot of good things over the years to move the needle on that, and I would say for 2017 there's two pieces. There is obviously the decline with the market, and then the other component that we're going to see later in the year is we're going to have a pension payment determining a pension plan, which will be a good slug of money as well. So that's why we stuck on the 55%, longer term there may be an opportunity to nudge that higher.
...
By the way, just to clarify that it's not, this is a pension payment related to one of the acquired companies; it's not a broader CoreLogic pension plan, just to be clear.

zwaar nieuws...

IRVINE, Calif., March 3, 2017 -CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, announced today that President and CEO , Anand Nallathambi , passed away on March 2, 2017 , after a brief illness.

“On behalf of the CoreLogic Board of Directors and our employees, it is with deep sorrow that we announce the unexpected passing of Anand Nallathambi,” stated Paul Folino, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CoreLogic. “Anand led CoreLogic from its inception as a public company in June 2010 to a high-performing leader in the housing market. Anand was an outstanding leader, and we will miss his many talents, energy and can-do spirit. Our thoughts are with Anand’s family and friends.”

“Anand was truly a very special and unique man. Anand led the transformation of CoreLogic into a leader in the global housing ecosystem,” stated Frank D. Martell, acting President and CEO. “He was one of those extraordinary people that everyone loved and wanted to be around. I will so miss him - his great warmth, grace, integrity and our close friendship.”

Anand Nallathambi was the president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic since June 2010. Prior to that, Mr. Nallathambi held various executive leadership positions at First Advantage Corporation and First American Corporation. Mr. Nallathambi received a bachelor of arts degree in economics from Loyola University in Madras, India and an MBA from California Lutheran University. He was an active volunteer with many organizations including the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Operation HOPE and the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics at California State University, Fullerton.

Was schrikken toen ik het persbericht in mijn mailbox las; hij werd slechts 55. Bedrijf is wel in goede handen. Zowel de interim-CEO als de CFO zitten al lang in het topmanagement.

CoreLogic Board of Directors Appoints Frank Martell President & Chief Executive Officer and Board Member

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- CoreLogic (CLGX)® (NYSE:CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, announced today that Frank Martell has been named President & Chief Executive Officer and appointed to the Board of Directors with immediate effect. Mr. Martell succeeds Anand Nallathambi, the Company’s former President & Chief Executive Officer, who passed away on March 2, 2017.

“Mr. Martell worked closely alongside Mr. Nallathambi for the past six years as the Company executed an aggressive growth strategy to transform CoreLogic into a global leader in residential property-related data-driven insights in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand. Mr. Martell is a proven leader with a track record of delivering exceptional operating and financial performance. He is well-known and respected by the Company's employees, clients and investors and I believe his intimate knowledge and extensive experience with the Company make him uniquely qualified to lead CoreLogic,” stated Paul Folino, Chairman of the Board of CoreLogic.

Mr. Martell joined the Company as Chief Financial Officer in 2011 and became Chief Operating Officer in 2014. Prior to joining CoreLogic, Mr. Martell served as the President & Chief Executive Officer of the Western Institutional Review Board, and before that Chief Financial Officer of Advantage Sales and Marketing and Information Services Group, Inc. From 1996 to 2006, Mr. Martell held various leadership positions at ACNielsen Corporation including Vice President & Treasurer, Chief Operating Officer and President of Asia Pacific & Emerging Markets, Executive Vice President of the Marketing Information Group, and Chief Operating Officer of ACNielsen and President Europe, Middle East & Africa.

Ondanks moeilijke markt (zoals verwacht), sterke resultaten!
Nettowinst halveert tov vorig kwartaal (oa door onderlijnde hieronder)
sterke FCF van 79M.

“CoreLogic delivered a strong operating performance in the first quarter of 2017. In terms of revenues, we substantially offset the impact of a 20% decline in U.S. mortgage applications through a combination of market share gains, pricing actions and new product rollouts across our core solution sets,” said Frank Martell, President and Chief Executive Officer of CoreLogic. “During the quarter, we also took aggressive actions to cut costs and drive further productivity into the organization including reducing our global staffing levels approximately 3%. We also continued to invest in enhancing and scaling our solution sets as well as expanding our innovation, technology and compliance capabilities. I believe these investments will help us to drive top-line growth, margins and cash flow and, ultimately, ensure our market leadership well into the future.”
“Our relentless focus on building scaled and unique market leading solutions as well as driving for best-in-class operational and cost efficiencies has resulted in the creation of a durable and highly cash generative business model. This model has allowed us to return over $1 billion to our stockholders over the past 6 years. We added to this total in the first quarter by returning an additional $20 million in capital through our ongoing share repurchase program,” Martell added.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/core ... F&hasPdf=1

Koers van -8,3% naar +1,1%. Daar zal de conference call voor iets tussenzitten.